Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Melt and Its Relation to Daily Atmospheric Conditions

Melt area is one of the most reliably monitored variables associated with surface conditions over the full Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Surface melt is also an important indicator of surface mass balance and has potential relevance to the ice sheet's global sea level contribution. Melt events are known to be spatially heterogeneous and have varying time scales. To understand the forcing mechanisms, it is necessary to examine the relation between the existing conditions and melt area on the time scales that melt is observed. Here, we conduct a regression analysis of atmospheric reanalysis variables including sea level pressure, near-surface winds, and components of the surface energy budget with surface melt. The regression analysis finds spatial heterogeneity in the associated atmospheric circulation conditions. For basins in the southern GrIS, there is an association between melt area and high pressure located south of the Denmark Strait, which allows for southerly flow over the western half of the GrIS. Instantaneous surface melt over northern basins is also associated with low pressure over the central Arctic. Basins associated with persistent summer melt in the southern and western GrIS are associated with the presence of an enhanced cloud cover, a resulting decreased downwelling solar radiative flux, and an enhanced downwelling longwave radiative flux. This contrasts with basins to the north and east, where an increased downwelling solar radiative flux plays a more important role in the onset of a melt event. The analysis emphasizes the importance of daily variability in synoptic conditions and their preferred association with melt events

Understanding Arctic Surface Temperature Differences in Reanalyses

Reanalyses in the Arctic are widely used for model evaluation and for understanding contemporary climate change. Nevertheless, differences among reanalyses in fundamental meteorological variables including surface air temperature are large. A review of surface temperature differences is presented with a particular focus on differences in contemporary reanalyses. An important consideration is the significant differences in Arctic surfaces, including the central Arctic Ocean, the Greenland Ice Sheet, and non-glaciated land. While there is significant correlation among reanalyses in annual time series, there is substantial disagreement in mean values. For the period 1980-2013, the trend in annual temperature ranges from 0.3 to 0.7K per decade. Over the central Arctic Ocean, differences in mean values and trends are larger. Most of the uncertainty is associated with winter months. This is likely associated with the constraint imposed by melting processes (i.e. 0 deg. Celsius), rather than seasonal changes to the observing system

Use of CMIP Atmospheric Boundary Conditions with ISMs

Dynamical ice sheet models are being used in simulations of future sea level change resulting from changing glacier mass. One of the difficulties in doing so are the input conditions obtained from earth system models. These inputs can be of coarse spatial resolution, and may not represent surface melt in a future climate. I review various methods for overcoming this with the aim of promoting discussion among modelers

Validation of AIRS V6 Surface Temperature over Greenland with GCN and NOAA Stations

This work compares the temporal and spatial characteristics of the AIRSAMSU (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit A) Version 6 and MODIS (Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Collection 5 derived surface temperatures over Greenland. To estimate uncertainties in space-based surface temperature measurements, we re-projected the MODIS Ice Surface Temperature (IST) to 0.5 by 0.5 degree spatial resolution. We also re-gridded AIRS Skin Temperature (Ts) into the same grid but classified with different cloud conditions and surface types. These co-located data sets make intercomparison between the two instruments relatively straightforward. Using this approach, the spatial comparison between the monthly mean AIRS Ts and MODIS IST is in good agreement with RMS 2K for May 2012. This approach also allows the detection of any long-term calibration drift and the careful examination of calibration consistency in the MODIS and AIRS temperature data record. The temporal correlations between temperature data are also compared with those from in-situ measurements from GC-Net (GCN) and NOAA stations. The coherent time series of surface temperature evident in the correlation between AIRS Ts and GCN temperatures suggest that at monthly time scales both observations capture the same climate signal over Greenland. It is also suggested that AIRS surface air temperature (Ta) can be used to estimate the boundary layer inversion

Evaluation of the Surface Representation of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a General Circulation Model

Simulated surface conditions of the Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS 5) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) are examined for the contemporary Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). A surface parameterization that explicitly models surface processes including snow compaction, meltwater percolation and refreezing, and surface albedo is found to remedy an erroneous deficit in the annual net surface energy flux and provide an adequate representation of surface mass balance (SMB) in an evaluation using simulations at two spatial resolutions. The simulated 1980-2008 GrIS SMB average is 24.7+/-4.5 cm yr(- 1) water-equivalent (w.e.) at.5 degree model grid spacing, and 18.2+/-3.3 cm yr(- 1) w.e. for 2 degree grid spacing. The spatial variability and seasonal cycle of the simulation compare favorably to recent studies using regional climate models, while results from 2 degree integrations reproduce the primary features of the SMB field. In comparison to historical glaciological observations, the coarser resolution model overestimates accumulation in the southern areas of the GrIS, while the overall SMB is underestimated. These changes relate to the sensitivity of accumulation and melt to the resolution of topography. The GEOS-5 SMB fields contrast with available corresponding atmospheric models simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). It is found that only a few of the CMIP5 AGCMs examined provide significant summertime runoff, a dominant feature of the GrIS seasonal cycle. This is a condition that will need to be remedied if potential contributions to future eustatic change from polar ice sheets are to be examined with GCMs

Inter-Relationship Between Subtropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature, Arctic Sea Ice Concentration, and the North Atlantic Oscillation in Recent Summers and Winters

The inter-relationship between subtropical western-central Pacific sea surface temperatures (STWCPSST), sea ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea (SICBS), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are investigated for the last 37 summers and winters (1980-2016). Lag-correlation of the STWCPSST(-1) in spring with the NAO phase and SICBS in summer increases over the last two decades, reaching r = 0.4-0.5 with significance at 5 percent, while winter has strong correlations in approximately 1985-2005. Observational analysis and the atmospheric general circulation model experiments both suggest that STWCPSST warming acts to increase the Arctic geopotential height and temperature in the following season. This atmospheric response extends to Greenland, providing favorable conditions for developing the negative phase of the NAO. SIC and surface albedo tend to decrease over the Beaufort Sea in summer, linked to the positive surface net shortwave flux. Energy balance considering radiative and turbulent fluxes reveal that available energy that can heat surface is larger over the Arctic and Greenland and smaller over the south of Greenland, in response to the STWCPSST warming in spring. XXXX Arctic & Atlantic: Positive upper-level height/T anomaly over the Arctic and Greenland, and a negative anomaly over the central-eastern Atlantic, resembling the (-) phase of the NAO. Pacific: The negative height/T anomaly over the mid-latitudes, along with the positive anomaly over the STWCP, where 1degC warming above climatology is prescribed. Discussion: It is likely that the Arctic gets warm and the NAO is in the negative phase in response to the STWCP warming. But, there are other factors (e.g., internal variability) that contribute to determination of the NAO phase: not always the negative phase of the NAO in the event of STWCP warming (e.g.: recent winters and near neutral NAO in 2017 summer)

Twenty-first century ocean forcing of the Greenland ice sheet for modelling of sea level contribution

This research has been supported by the National Science Foundation, Office of Polar Programs (grant no. 1916566), the National Science Foundation, Division of Ocean Sciences (grant no. 1756272), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (grant no. NNX17AI03G), the National Science Foundation, Office of Polar Programs (grant nos. 1513396 and 1504230), the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (grant no. 024.002.001), the Fonds De La Recherche Scientifique – FNRS (grant no. 2.5020.11), and the FédérationWallonie-Bruxelles (grant no. 1117545).Changes in ocean temperature and salinity are expected to be an important determinant of the Greenland ice sheet's future sea level contribution. Yet, simulating the impact of these changes in continental-scale ice sheet models remains challenging due to the small scale of key physics, such as fjord circulation and plume dynamics, and poor understanding of critical processes, such as calving and submarine melting. Here we present the ocean forcing strategy for Greenland ice sheet models taking part in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), the primary community effort to provide 21st century sea level projections for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report. Beginning from global atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, we describe two complementary approaches to provide ocean boundary conditions for Greenland ice sheet models, termed the "retreat" and "submarine melt" implementations. The retreat implementation parameterises glacier retreat as a function of projected subglacial discharge and ocean thermal forcing, is designed to be implementable by all ice sheet models and results in retreat of around 1 and 15 km by 2100 in RCP2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The submarine melt implementation provides estimated submarine melting only, leaving the ice sheet model to solve for the resulting calving and glacier retreat and suggests submarine melt rates will change little under RCP2.6 but will approximately triple by 2100 under RCP8.5. Both implementations have necessarily made use of simplifying assumptions and poorly constrained parameterisations and, as such, further research on submarine melting, calving and fjord-shelf exchange should remain a priority. Nevertheless, the presented framework will allow an ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models to be systematically and consistently forced by the ocean for the first time and should result in a significant improvement in projections of the Greenland ice sheet's contribution to future sea level change.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

A Multilayer Surface Temperature, Surface Albedo, and Water Vapor Product of Greenland from MODIS

A multilayer, daily ice surface temperature (IST)-albedo-water vapor product of Greenland, extending from March 2000 through December 2016, has been developed using standard MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data products from the Terra satellite. To meet the needs of the ice sheet modeling community, this new Earth Science Data Record (ESDR) is provided in a polar stereographic projection in NetCDF format, and includes the existing standard MODIS Collection 6.1 IST and derived melt maps, and Collection 6 snow albedo and water vapor maps, along with ancillary data, and is provided at a spatial resolution of ~0.78 km. This ESDR enables relationships between IST, surface melt, albedo, and water vapor to be evaluated easily. We show examples of the components of the ESDR and describe some uses of the ESDR such as for comparison with skin temperature, albedo, and water vapor output from Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Additionally, we show validation of the MODIS IST using in situ and aircraft data, and validation of MERRA-2 skin temperature maps using MODIS IST and in situ data. The ESDR has been assigned a DOI and will be available through the National Snow and Ice Data Center by the summer of 2018